For the CEO

The Challenge You Are Facing

You are subject to events rather than shaping them.

An environment that challenges traditional strategies

Recent studies confirm this reality. The World Economic Forum's 2023 report indicates that 80% of executives anticipate an increase in volatility and systemic risks in the coming years. Yet, the majority acknowledge that their current detection tools remain inadequate.

Your primary responsibility is to ensure the sustainability of your organization in an increasingly unpredictable environment. You are encountering several concrete difficulties in carrying out this mission.

Your strategic decisions are often based on incomplete or delayed data. The reports you receive generally describe what has already happened, rarely what might happen. This reality limits your ability to anticipate strategic shifts and position your organization accordingly.

Your teams are skilled and dedicated, but they often operate in silos. Information flows poorly between departments, delaying the detection of early warning signs. A regulatory change detected by your legal team takes weeks to reach management, even though it immediately impacts your strategy.

Your planning processes, designed for a stable environment, are struggling to keep pace with current transformations. Your strategic plan is becoming partially obsolete even before it's fully deployed. Adjustments require meetings, hierarchical approvals, and budget changes that take too long.

You've noticed that your organization reacts to crises rather than anticipating them. Alerts often come too late, when the situation already requires emergency intervention. This constant reactivity exhausts your teams and generates additional costs.

Your monitoring and analysis systems, while sophisticated, primarily capture expected information. They struggle to detect emerging weak signals on the periphery of your industry. Yet these signals often herald the most significant disruptions.

Finally, you will find that traditional risk management training and tools help to manage incidents, but do little to prevent them. They focus on resolving known problems rather than detecting emerging hazards.

These challenges do not call into question your leadership or the quality of your organization. They reveal the limitations of management models designed for a more predictable world. Your role now requires new skills to navigate a complex and ever-changing environment.

Our Response (not a solution, a capability)

Cultivate capabilities, not provide solutions.

Pericology does not offer you a new forecasting method, nor a miracle scenario to control uncertainty. Such a thing does not exist.

It helps you develop a collective capacity :

• The ability to sense the early warning signs before they become crises.

This ability is not based on intuition or individual talent. It relies on three concrete levers, directly inspired by what living systems have been doing for billions of years :

1. Expand your strategic vision beyond traditional indicators

   Financial dashboards, performance reports, and market research measure what has already happened. They do not detect emerging disruptions.

   Our approach consists of setting up a network of human sensors, positioned or sensitive employees, capable of perceiving latent tensions:

   - an unmeasured drop in morale, a recurring customer rumor, friction between teams, hesitation in operational decisions.

   These signals are often informal, unquantifiable, or even considered "subjective." Yet, research in crisis management shows that they systematically precede major disruptions. Hervé Lesca and Nicolas Lesca, in Information and Communication Management in Crisis Situations (2010), demonstrate that more than 90% of major crises were preceded by weak signals that were ignored .

2. Replace rigid planning with an evolving strategy

   A three-year strategic plan is useful for aligning teams, but it becomes obsolete as soon as the environment changes, which is now the norm.

   Rather than trying to predict everything, we help you create the conditions for your strategy to adapt continuously. This involves:

   Small-scale experiments , tested in real-world conditions,

   A selection of initiatives that work, inspired by the principles of evolution (as described by Henry Mintzberg in The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning , 1994),

   Simple principles of action (e.g., "Prioritize learning over short-term performance") rather than fixed objectives.

   This is not improvisation. It is a structured approach of continuous adaptation , where the strategy emerges from action, not from a document.

3. Establish a sensory monitoring committee

   Your executive committees are excellent at managing the existing system. But they are rarely designed to detect the unpredictable.

   We are co-creating with you a sensory monitoring committee , composed of cognitively diverse profiles:

   A field representative,

   A technical expert,

   A client or partner,

   An ethical or societal profile,

   A data analyst.

This committee does not manage operations. It has only one mission:

• Scanning weak signals, interpreting emerging dynamics, and proposing strategic micro-experiments.

This approach is based on the work of Scott Page ( The Difference , 2007), who shows that cognitive diversity improves a group's ability to solve complex problems, much more than the individual intelligence of its members.

In summary

Pericology doesn't give you answers.

• ✅ It gives you the means to ask the right questions, earlier.

• ✅ It does not claim to eliminate uncertainty.

• ✅ It helps you navigate it with more clarity, fluidity, and confidence.

• ✅ And most importantly, it doesn't transform your organization into a more efficient machine.

• ✅ It helps you turn it into an ecosystem capable of sensing, adapting, and learning, as living systems have done for 3.8 billion years.

What we propose

Strengthen your organization's capacity.

Our intervention focuses on developing your ability to anticipate strategic risks. Here's what we offer in concrete terms:

Initial diagnosis

We begin by assessing your current situation across three dimensions:

• Your coverage of strategic risk areas

• Your weak signal detection processes

• Your decision-making mechanisms in the face of the unpredictable

This assessment lasts two weeks and is based on interviews with your management teams and the analysis of your existing systems.

Personalized support

Based on this assessment, we will co-create a program with you tailored to your specific challenges. This support includes:

• The implementation of peripheral vigilance protocols

• The installation of adaptive coordination mechanisms

• The development of post-event learning rituals

• The creation of monitoring dashboards

Skills transfer

Our goal is your autonomy. We train your teams to:

• Identify and interpret weak signals

• Activate the appropriate protocols

• Capitalizing on learning

• Evolve the forecasting system

Practical details

The intervention takes place over a period of 3 to 6 months, depending on the scope of your needs. We work closely with your management committee and the relevant operational managers.

We provide comprehensive documentation of the protocols implemented and train your teams on their use and evolution.

Our proposals are based on rigorous, documented and verifiable concepts:

• Ecological resilience ( CS Holling, Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973),

• Emerging strategy ( H. Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning , 1994),

• Collective intelligence in the context of crisis (K. Weick & K. Sutcliffe, Managing the Unexpected , 2001),

• Cognitive diversity as a factor in robustness (S. Page, The Difference , 2007).

The Program

Perceiving, adapting and learning in the face of uncertainty.

1. PHASE 1 : Strategic Biome Diagnosis (WEEKS 1-3)

   Objective : to observe how your organization perceives and reacts to warning signs.
   We do not conduct a compliance or performance audit. We map information flows, bottlenecks, profiles that detect tensions before others, and decision-making mechanisms in the face of unforeseen events.

   Procedure :

   Meeting with members of your management committee to map existing decision-making processes

   Document analysis of your current monitoring and alert systems

   Identifying key people who, by virtue of their position, possess a natural peripheral vision

   Evaluation of formal and informal information channels

   Deliverable : A map of existing detection capabilities and identified blind spots.

2. PHASE 2 : Installation of Devices (WEEKS 4-7)

   Objective : To strengthen your management's ability to perceive what is emerging at the periphery of your field of attention. This committee is not a new bureaucratic body. It is a small group chosen for its cognitive diversity:

   - technical profiles, field experience, clients, ethics, innovation.

   They meet briefly at regular intervals to share their observations, without judgment or hierarchy.
   We help you define its operating rules, feedback channels, and sharing rituals.

   Procedure :

   Establishment of an internal vigilance network with volunteers from different departments

   Implementation of simple procedures for reporting unusual observations

   Joint definition of relevance criteria for filtering information

   Installation of a shared dashboard to view the reported signals

   Deliverable : An operational device for detecting and visualizing weak signals.

3. PHASE 3 : Experimentation and Learning (WEEKS 8-10)

   Objective : To replace reliance on rigid plans with shared operational principles, applicable regardless of the nature of the disruption.

   Procedure :

   Practical application using real signals detected by the network

   Observation of decision-making processes in situations of uncertainty

   Adjusting protocols based on feedback from experience

   Formalizing collective learning

   Deliverable : Initial feedback on the effectiveness of the systems put in place.

4. PHASE 4 : Automation and Sustainability (WEEKS 11-12)

   Objective : To ensure that every disruption, however minor, becomes a source of collective adjustment. After each unforeseen event, a short ritual (15 to 30 minutes) is facilitated. It does not seek to assign blame.

   Procedure :

   Training of internal managers in the management of the vigilance network

   Finalizing procedures and tools

   Definition of performance monitoring indicators for the system

   Transition plan towards autonomous internal management

   Deliverable : A sustainable and autonomous organizational vigilance system.

Duration and Investment

This program does not promise to prevent all crises. It aims to ensure that, when the unforeseen occurs, your organization is not caught off guard, not because it predicted it, but because it has learned to sense, adapt, and learn from each experience.

This approach requires a genuine willingness to listen and experiment. The results largely depend on the organization's commitment to this collective learning process.

It requires neither expensive technology nor profound reorganization. It starts with what already exists :

• People, their perceptions, and their ability to act together.

What this program is not

• ❌ This is not a standardized training program.

• ❌ This is not a compliance audit.

• ❌ This is not a promise of zero incidents.

• ❌ This is not a replacement for your existing technical tools.

What the program requires of your organization

Human commitment :

• Your availability and that of your management teams throughout the duration of the program

• The active involvement of at least ten people from different departments

• The openness to questioning certain established processes

Time commitment :

• An estimated involvement of half a day to two days per week dedicated to monitoring the program

• Regular working meetings with the operational teams

• Time dedicated to experimenting with new devices

What the program does not guarantee

We make no promises :

• The disappearance of social or organizational crises

• The detection of all weak signals

• A rapid and complete cultural transformation

• Quantifiable results in short timeframes

Operating principles

Transparency :

• All observations, analyses and recommendations are shared in real time with your team.

Adaptation :

• The program is adjusted according to your specific constraints and organizational context.

Gradual progression :

• Each step builds upon the previous one, without any abrupt break from your current practices.

Sustainability :

• The goal is to make you self-reliant in managing your forecasting capabilities, without external dependence.

Conditions for success

The organizations that benefit most from this program are those that :

• They acknowledge their current limitations in terms of anticipation

• They accept that improvement is gradual and sometimes non-linear.

• They consider anticipation as a collective skill to be developed

• They accept the element of uncertainty inherent in any learning process.

Financial commitment :

• An investment corresponding to the internal working time mobilized

• Costs related to peri-ecological support

• Any organizational adjustments identified together

• We explain in detail what is included and what is not before any commitment.

We offer you a diagnosis, an action to test, and a commitment : if it doesn't work, you stop.

To go further

Our response : to develop a capacity, not to provide a solution.

If this approach resonates with what you observe in the field, then Pericology might interest you. Not as a solution, but as a framework for reflection, experimentation, and potentially, co-creation.

Please take a few minutes to describe your situation to us.

✍️ QUESTIONNAIRE :

1. When did you identify your last disruptive threat ?

   Before it impacts your results

   When it began to have an impact

   When she was already critical

2. How do your teams react to the unpredictable ?

   Immediate adaptation without a meeting

   Rapid coordination after briefing

   Awaiting instructions

3. Are your innovation processes…

   Organic and emergent

   Structured yet flexible

   Rigid and planned

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It doesn't commit you to anything.

It gives you a useful answer.

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