The Post-VUCA Era : When the organization becomes a living ecosystem

The VUCA World

Understanding the challenges of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity

The term VUCA has been used since the 1990s to describe a specific environment that organizations encounter. It originated in American military vocabulary and was gradually adopted in the business world starting in the 2000s.

VUCA represents four distinct characteristics :

• Volatility

  Situations are changing rapidly and unpredictably. The time between events is shortening, making timely adaptation difficult. Studies by PwC show that 78% of executives now consider this volatility the new normal.

  • Bio-Inspired Method : Rapid Adaptation of Plants

    • Translation into Peripheral Vigilance : Identification via SWOT - Detection of surrounding changes

      • Anticipating Hazards : Detecting Rapid Changes - Immediate Adjustment to Fluctuations

        • Concrete Example : Simulations for volatile markets - Swarm-inspired algorithms for volatile markets

          • Sources : Asana (2025) - Bioxegy (2022)

• Uncertainty

  The information available is often incomplete, contradictory, or difficult to interpret. Decision-making becomes complex when the consequences of actions are difficult to anticipate. Research from the Institute of Uncertainty at the University of Cambridge documents this growing reality.

  • Bio-Inspired Method : Animal Sensory Senses

    • Translation into Peripheral Vigilance : 4C Development for Critical Thinking - Comprehensive Observation of Weak Signals

      • Anticipating Risks : Managing Weak Signals - Proactive Pivot to the Unforeseen

        • Concrete Example : Emotional intelligence for crises - Collective intelligence for predicting cyber threats

          • Sources : Thact Group (2023) - The Human Hack (2024)

• Complexity

  Problems involve multiple interconnected elements. A decision in one area can have unforeseen consequences in others. The Santa Fe Institute, a specialist in complex systems, has demonstrated how these interconnections render traditional analysis insufficient.

  • Bio-Inspired Method : Stigmergy of Ants

    • Translation into Peripheral Vigilance : Design Fiction Implementation - Decentralized Coordination

      • Anticipating Perils : Implementing Design Fiction - Managing Interconnected Chaos

        • Concrete Example : Networks for Supply Chains - Models for Complex Supply Chains

          • Sources : Dantotsupm (2023) - Thact Group (2023)

• Ambiguity

  These situations lack a clear frame of reference. There is no precedent or prior experience to guide action. The work of the Paris School of Management has documented this phenomenon in contemporary organizations.

  • Bio-Inspired Method : Immune Learning

    • Translation into Peripheral Vigilance : Assessment with learn-unlearn - Clarification of interpretations

      • Anticipating Hazards : Assessment with Learn-Unlearn - Hypothesis Testing for Error Reduction

        • Concrete Example : Simulations for ambiguous data - Strategies for ambiguous data

          • Sources : MDPI (2024) - Co-Effisens (2024)

This description of the world is not a theory. It reflects the daily experiences of executives, technical teams, HR managers, and risk managers. It was popularized in management by researchers like William R. Bennis, and later clarified by Bennett and Lemoine in a 2014 Harvard Business Review article that has become a benchmark in strategic analysis.

Faced with this reality, traditional management methods, designed for stable and predictable environments, are showing their limitations. Strategic plans become obsolete before they are even fully implemented, and rigid organizational structures struggle to adapt.

Research in organizational science, including publications from the MIT Sloan Management Review, indicates that current approaches to risk management and strategic planning are becoming less and less effective in this context.

This is not an abstract theory, but a documented observation of the current organizational environment. Understanding these characteristics is the first step in developing relevant adaptive capabilities.

Anticipating perils in the VUCA/Post-VUCA is not about predicting the future. It is about cultivating an organization with a sensory system, decentralized coordination, adaptive memory, and a capacity for continuous experimentation, just like natural ecosystems do.

Beyond VUCA : Post-VUCA

An even more interconnected and disruptive world.

The limitations of the VUCA framework are now documented by several studies. Research from the MIT Sloan Management Review and analyses by Deloitte indicate that we have entered a phase where VUCA characteristics are no longer exceptional but constitute the normal operating environment.

Post-VUCA is characterized by three main developments :

• Disruption is becoming permanent. PwC's "Global CEO Outlook" study shows that 79% of executives anticipate more major disruptions in the next two years. These are no longer isolated crises interspersed with periods of stability, but a continuous state of accelerated transformation.

• Interdependencies become total. Research from the Santa Fe Institute on complex systems demonstrates that modern organizations are connected to multiple ecosystems, making cascading effects unpredictable. A local decision can have unforeseen global consequences.

• Adaptation must be continuous. CS Holling's research on the resilience of ecological systems, applied to organizations by researchers like Brian Walker, indicates that the capacity for ongoing adaptation is becoming more important than one-off operational efficiency.

In this context, traditional management approaches show their limitations. Hierarchical control, detailed planning, and the optimization of existing processes become insufficient in the face of changes that challenge the processes themselves.

Pericology observes this evolution without dramatizing or minimizing it. Our approach is based on the principle that organizations must develop new capabilities to evolve in this environment, without claiming to offer a universal solution.

The mechanisms we propose are inspired by biological systems that have proven themselves in similar environments of complexity and uncertainty. They are adaptable to the specific contexts of each organization, without any guarantee of results but with documented methodological rigor.

VUCA/Post-VUCA requires living system logic, not machine logic

✅ Reference : Santa Fe Institute & Complex Systems Theory

• The Santa Fe Institute (founded in 1984) has demonstrated that complex adaptive systems (forests, markets, organizations) cannot be controlled like machines.

  "In a complex system, causes and effects are non-linear, distributed, and emergent. Prediction fails. Adaptation succeeds."

  → Source : M. Gell-Mann, “The Quark and the Jaguar” (1994)

• Dave Snowden (creator of the Cynefin framework ) clearly distinguishes :

  • Complex domain → best practices (ISO, PCA)

  • Complex domain → emergence, experimentation, weak signals

    → Source : Snowden & Boone, “A Leader's Framework for Decision Making”, Harvard Business Review (2007)

• Pericology does not replace ISO. It fills its blind spot : radical uncertainty, black swans, emerging perils .

In a post-VUCA (interconnected, disruptive, unpredictable) world, only living systems survive. Pericology proposes precisely this : transforming the organization into a living system.

The Pericological Response

Each action must be able to be explained, understood, and repeated by the teams themselves.

Faced with the challenges of the Post-VUCA world, Pericology offers an approach based on the observation of living systems that have been able to adapt and endure through planetary changes.

Our approach is based on biological mechanisms documented by scientific research, which we transpose into concrete organizational protocols.

The foundations of our approach

Pericology uses four biological principles validated by research :

1. Peripheral vision in vertebrates

   Animals detect movements and changes in their environment using specialized cells. We apply this principle to help organizations identify early warning signs.

2. Stigmergic coordination of social insects

   Ants and termites coordinate their actions without a central command, using signals left in the environment. We use this mechanism to improve collaboration in organizations.

3. The resilience of ecosystems

   Forests and natural environments have the capacity to regenerate after disturbances. We draw inspiration from this to help organizations transform crises into learning opportunities.

4. Evolutionary adaptation

   Species gradually adapt to their environment through small, successive adjustments. We apply this principle for continuous and sustainable improvements.

Our method

We help organizations develop four fundamental capabilities :

• Early detection of weak signals

• Autonomous coordination of teams

• Transforming crises into learning opportunities

• Continuous adaptation to changes

Each capability is developed through the gradual installation of simple protocols, tested and adjusted according to your specific context.

What we do not do

We don't create new theories. We don't promise miraculous results. We don't replace your existing management methods. We don't present ourselves as omniscient experts.

Our positioning

We are engaged in a rigorous transposition process :

• We take biological mechanisms validated by research and adapt them to the organizational context.

This approach is still recent and we are currently developing it with a limited number of partner organizations.

The principles we use are documented by research in biology and ecology, including the work of CS Holling on ecosystem resilience and Pierre-Paul Grassé on the behavior of social insects.

Our value lies in the rigor of this transposition and our ability to adapt it to the concrete realities of your organization.

In a VUCA world, organizations must shift from reacting to anticipating.

How does it work in practice ?

Biological mechanisms validated by 3.8 billion years of R&D.

Pericology is not based on hypotheses, but on a method structured in four phases , designed to be applied in real organizations, with real teams and real constraints.

1. First capability : the detection of weak signals

   This ability is inspired by the peripheral vision mechanisms observed in vertebrates. In practical terms, we help you identify individuals within your teams who are naturally attentive to subtle changes. We then implement a simple system for them to report observations, without increasing their workload. Research in cognitive science, such as that published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology, confirms that this distributed vigilance improves the early detection of risks.

2. Second ability : autonomous coordination

   We rely on the principle of stigmergy observed in social insects, documented by the work of naturalist Pierre-Paul Grassé. In practice, we co-create simple rules with your teams that enable coordination without excessive meetings. For example, a protocol defines who does what when a weak signal is detected, with clear alert thresholds. This approach is used successfully in IT project management.

3. Third capability : learning after disruption

   Inspired by the resilience of ecosystems studied by C.S. Holling, this capability translates into the implementation of post-incident analysis rituals. These are short, structured meetings to identify what worked and what didn't, without assigning blame. The reports are kept in a publicly accessible database. Organizations like airlines have been using similar methods for decades.

4. Fourth capability : continuous adaptation

   We apply the principles of evolution observed in nature, not as a metaphor but as a concrete process. This translates into implementing small-scale tests of new practices, with clear criteria for deciding whether to generalize, modify, or abandon them. Management research, such as the work of the Academy of Management Review, shows that this approach improves adaptation to change.

Our implementation method

We intervene over a period of three to six months according to a defined process :

• Initial assessment of existing capabilities

• Co-creating protocols adapted to your context

• Training of the teams involved

• Monitoring of concrete indicators

Each protocol is tested and adjusted based on feedback. We measure progress using observable criteria :

• Signal detection time, reaction speed, learning quality.

This approach requires a time investment from your teams, but does not require major organizational transformation. Changes are gradual and focus on specific areas where rapid improvement is possible.

We openly document the results of our method with the organizations that trust us. If this approach seems to meet your organization's needs, we can discuss it further.

Pericology is not a competitor to traditional counseling, but its necessary complement to navigate the Post-VUCA era.

Transition to Post-VUCA

The Post-VUCA Era : When the Organization Becomes a Living Ecosystem

The transition to Post-VUCA is not an abrupt change, but a gradual process based on the methodical development of new capabilities. Research conducted by the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence and observations of complex systems by the Santa Fe Institute show that this transition requires a phased approach.

Our practical approach

We support organizations through a structured three-phase process :

1. Phase 1 : Assessment of current capacities

   Diagnosis of existing weak signal detection mechanisms

   Analysis of coordination methods in situations of uncertainty

   Evaluation of post-event learning processes

2. Phase 2 : Gradual development of capacities

   Installation of appropriate peripheral vigilance protocols

   Implementation of autonomous coordination mechanisms

   Development of structured learning rituals

3. Phase 3 : Integration and autonomy

   Gradual transfer of skills to internal teams

   Implementation of continuous monitoring measures

   Adaptation of protocols based on feedback from experience

The foundations of our approach

Our method is based on principles documented by research in biology and organizational science. The work of C.S. Holling on ecosystem resilience and the observations of Pierre-Paul Grassé on stigmergy provide us with a solid foundation for designing robust organizational protocols.

Transparency regarding our positioning

We are currently developing these methods with a limited number of partner organizations. We are rigorously documenting the results and any necessary adjustments. Our goal is to gradually establish a reliable approach, without promising rapid transformation or guaranteed results.

Possible next steps

If this approach interests you, we can :

• We will present in more detail the biological principles that underpin our method.

• Discuss their potential application to your specific context

• Explore how to initiate a collaboration if it meets your needs.

This transition to a post-VUCA environment requires time and perseverance. We offer realistic support, without excessive promises, focused on the gradual development of sustainable capacities.

Take Action

Contact us for an initial concrete exploration.

Contact us for an initial concrete exploration.

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